Who really won the Cold War? Maybe China.

In 1972, the logic of the Cold War pushed US President Richard Nixon into an unusual alliance with Mao Zedong, bringing China back into the world economy. In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union fueled an overconfidence that proclaimed "the end of history" and that blinded the West to the consequences of China's rise.

We come to 2020 and the Asian giant has emerged as a world power, its one-party government and state-dominated economy are a cause for alarm in foreign capitals and the pride of Beijing. By 2035, Bloomberg Economics projections say that China will have overtaken the United States to be the world's largest economy and perhaps its most powerful political actor as well.

China's rise is just one part of a larger change that is already underway and looks set to accelerate in the coming decades.

Bloomberg Economics has used a growth accounting framework (adding the input of capital, labor, and productivity) to forecast potential GDP through 2050 for 39 countries, from the United States to Ghana. We have used that data to identify some of the key geographic and political changes that lie ahead for the global economy.

The results suggest that a remarkable period of stability, spanning from the end of World War II to the beginning of the 21st century, is coming to an end. The economic center of gravity is shifting from the West to the East, from advanced economies to emerging markets, from free markets to state controls, and from established democracies to authoritarian and populist governments. The transition is already disrupting global politics, the economy and markets. This is just the beginning.

There are many things that could skew our projections. The COVID-19 crisis is demonstrating how pandemics can reshape the world economic map. Wars, natural disasters, and financial crises can do the same, as can political decisions about globalization and climate change. However, in the absence of a crystal ball, potential growth projections provide the most reliable basis for thinking long-term.